A new study by Statistics Canada says 18 per cent of people who live in urban neighbourhoods in Canada are afraid to walk the streets after dark. The study, of people who live in communities of more than 50,000 people, represents about three million Canadians.

Women were about three times more likely to say they felt unsafe as men, and more people aged 65 and over were fearful than those aged 25 to 44. But once the seniors got into their homes, they were less likely to be fearful about being home alone than those in the younger age group.

The study (Fear of Crime and the Neighbourhood Context in Canadian Cities by Robin Fitzgerald) shows three neighbourhood characteristics were "significantly associated with the likelihood of reporting fear of crime: higher proportions of low income families, visible minority residents, and lone-parent families." It’s little wonder that many people are afraid of crime, given the amount of media coverage it receives. Violent crime almost always leads off television news reports, and a few high-profile, violent murders in Canada this year have received national attention. Ask most people on the street if crime is getting worse, and they are likely to say yes. Politicians are picking up on the fear and promising harsher sentencing guidelines and more police on the street.

Yet, Statistics Canada reported in July that Canada’s national crime rate, based on data reported by the police, declined for the third consecutive year in 2007. The crime rate peaked back in 1991, and has been dropping ever since.

Violent crime figures are down too. Homicides, attempted murders, sexual assaults and robberies were all down in 2007. The overall crime rate among youth aged 12 to 17, which was up in 2006, dropped slightly last year.

The rate of residential break-ins fell by nine per cent. There were just over 230,000 break-ins reported in 2007, of which about 60 per cent were residential.

Toronto boasted that it was the safest big city in Canada – it has the lowest crime rate of any city with 500,000 or more people. The highest per capita crime rate among the largest cities was in Winnipeg, followed by Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary.

The worst crime rate in the country went to Regina, with 11,827 Criminal Code offences (excluding traffic) per 100,000 people. Regina also led the way in violent crime, with 1,478 offences per 100,000 people, compared to 599 in Ottawa.

The break-and-enter capital of Canada is also Regina, with Abbotsford, B.C. coming in second, St. John’s third and Winnipeg fourth. The honours for lowest break-and-enter crime rate in the country go to, surprisingly, Toronto, although critics will say that many more break-in victims didn’t bother reporting their losses to police.

Whether you believe it or not, it appears that crime in the big cities is dropping, but it may be rising in smaller towns.

Recently the Canadian Press did an analysis of violet crime figures from Ontario’s Ministry of the Attorney General, and concluded that in towns with fewer than 100,000 people, the number of serious charges laid since 2000 was up by almost 25 per cent. Reports speculated that a crackdown on guns and gangs in Toronto had forced criminals to relocate to other centres in the province.

"It challenges the myth that cities are violent and rural areas are not," Voula Marinos, a criminology professor at Brock University, told Canadian Press.

Premier Dalton McGuinty said that the government has hired more police officers, judges and prosecutors, resulting in more charges.

But later in the week, Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino said in a news release that reports saying that violent crime "was out of control in many smaller Ontario communities are misleading and don’t accurately reflect the situation."

Fantino said "many factors have to be considered when interpreting statistical reports prior to jumping to conclusions" and "charges are routinely transferred between courts and include charges from more that one police jurisdiction."

He said the OPP uses the Statistics Canada Uniform Crime Reporting numbers. A study released by Statistics Canada last year using those figures concluded that small urban areas had higher overall crime rates than large urban areas. It also found that "taking population into account, the homicide rate of 2.5 homicides per 100,000 people in rural areas was actually higher than the rate of 2.0 in large urban areas and the rate of 1.7 in small urban areas. The pattern has held constant over the past decade."

Fantino said, "We know that violent crime isn’t restricted to large urban areas… . The OPP polices 315 communities across the province of various sizes and each has its own policing challenges and demographics." Policing services are specifically tailored to each community to ensure they are safe, he said. "The OPP works hand in hand with our police partners, the community and the justice system to prevent crime and the causes of crime. Public safety and security continues to be a shared responsibility."

Published: September 2, 2008

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Jim Adair is editor of REM: Canada's Real Estate Magazine, a business publication for real estate agents and brokers. He is also consulting editor of Homes & Cottages, Canada's largest building and renovation magazine. Email jimhc@pathcom.com.